Burden of half-disintegration. Ten consequences of Arab revolution
$250 per barrel of oil, a new economic crisis and the remapping of the world are looming on the horizon. Ukrainian Focus has analyzed the 10 major consequences of the prolonged unrest in the Islamic Middle East and North Africa.1. Empty tanks
The world is preparing for oil shortages. Problems with oil supplies limited to only two countries – Libya and Algeria – can cause a rapid rise in prices for hydrocarbons. Even if Saudi Arabia for some time replaces the North African suppliers, it will not be able to pump oil at full capacity for a long time. In the worst scenario – with a loss of the government control of oil terminals and their eventual passing under the Islamists’ control – the price of oil could soar to $250 per barrel. And the EU already proposes an austerity mode: to start working from home, to reduce the pool of company cars and to completely ban the use of cars at certain hours.
2. Green Economy
The increasing oil prices are almost certain to end in a recession, experts say. A spike in food prices and grain will follow. Weakened by the global financial crisis, European countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy would have to economize again, the purchasing power of the Europeans will be reduced, and the EU will be on the verge of a crisis. But the shortage of oil may lead to an unexpected positive effect: it will force the world to actively promote a green economy, create new industry jobs, strengthen energy security and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
3. Royal bounty
The wave of protests will sweep away the presidents and governments, but the royal dynasties of the Arab world will not succumb. However, they are doomed to share the oil revenues with the people.
Another challenge for Europe will be an army of refugees from North Africa. Recently, each day the authorities recorded up to 15 thousand people who stormed the European shores. If the situation does not stabilize, hundreds of thousands of refugees may try to penetrate into Europe, says the leading expert of the Heritage Foundation on Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy, Ariel Cohen.
4. Arab is a wolf to Arab
In Arab countries, the problem of stateless residents, such as the Bedouins of Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, has been maturing. Their number amounts to several millions, and they have long disliked the fact that the billions of dollars in oil revenues just bypass them. In some areas, the conflict could escalate into interclass massacre: the rich Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain are dangerously close to the raging poorest segments of the population of Yemen.
5. To keep one’s seat
The White House believes that the anti-government riots will sweep the presidents of some Islamic countries away, but the protesters are unlikely to succeed in getting rid of the monarchs. The United States believes that, despite all the threats, the rulers will try to appease the rebels with the money from the billion-dollar oil revenues. The White House, despite the stringent measures against the protesters in the Middle East, is in constant communication with the presidents of these countries. The U.S. and Europe openly condemn only the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.
6. Fires for decades
While Washington is delegating its diplomats to negotiate with the Arab rulers, Moscow predicts long-running conflicts to that region. "It may be a case of the disintegration of big populous states into smaller fragments. This will mean fires for decades", said Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev recently. Libya could be one of the first to collapse; Syria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and Turkey are also under the threat of fragmentation along religious or tribal principles.
7. Coercion to help
Europe and the U.S., despite the redeployment of U.S. forces in the Mediterranean Sea, insist that their objective today is to provide humanitarian aid to the region (this applies especially to Libya). It is unlikely that Europe will dare to follow the advice of British Prime Minister David Cameron and start handing out weapons to the enemies of Gaddafi, who has made it clear: he will react to any involvement of outside forces according to martial law. However, the director of Russia's Middle East Institute Yevgeny Satanovsky believes that a pre-emptive strike at al-Gaddafi to prevent him from destroying the oil terminals and pipelines may still be possible.
8. Black mark
Everyone who has had close trade relations with Tripoli may face frozen agreements as a fait accompli. For Russia, in particular, it would mean the loss of contracts for weapons supply in exchange for cancellation of Tripoli’s debt. On this, Moscow will lose many billion dollars.
9. Everyone is playing for own hand
The Arab-Israeli conflict will only get worse because of the protests. In addition, amid general panic, the role of China and India, as well as of Iran and Turkey is going to strengthen, experts say. But the Arab countries will also maintain relations with the U.S., and the new leaders will try to build relationships with the United States already for themselves. Neither the moderate political forces, nor the radicals are going to quarrel with the White House.
10. Political Islam
Experts call what is happening today in Arab countries the Middle East democracy. "First and foremost, it implies not the individual rights or minority rights, but the rights of the majority to destroy and persecute any minority if the majority wants that”, says Yevgeny Satanovsky. “I am quite sceptical about the future of the region from Morocco to Pakistan, despite the change of the old elites, which is partly occurring within the local ruling clans as in Egypt and Tunisia, and partly out of that framework, as in Libya". According to the expert, the long-term political Islam is going to be the future of the region.
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